Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | MSST +100 TCU -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +7 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -2.1 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.1 (+28.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -0.8 (+7.8) | 132.1 (+22.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -1.0 (+8.0) | 132.1 (+22.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -1.9 (+8.9) | 130.1 (+24.9) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -1.0 (+8.0) | 131.3 (+23.7) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#56) | 14.8 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#75) | 2.88 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#75) | 4.10 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#102) | 0.591 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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