Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Over |
| Money | MSM -110 SPU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +11 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | MSM -5.8 (-16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.6 (+17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -2.3 (-13.3) | 123.9 (+11.1) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -2.3 (-13.3) | 120.9 (+14.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -2.8 (-13.8) | 122.0 (+13.0) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -3.5 (-14.5) | 123.9 (+11.1) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | SPU 66 – 58 MSM |
| Jan 10, 2026 | MSM 70 – 65 SPU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MSM 69 – 58 SPU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | MSM 79 – 64 SPU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | SPU 70 – 65 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-13 |
| Home | 5-9 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.8 | 60.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 65.5 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#269) | -8.0 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#315) | -1.56 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#308) | -1.91 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#313) | 0.423 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 39.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.