Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | TOL -1000 BGSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +14 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -12.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -11.4 (+2.6) | 163.5 (+4.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -12.5 (+1.5) | 161.5 (+6.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -10.9 (+3.1) | 160.3 (+7.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -11.0 (+3.0) | 162.9 (+5.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | TOL 77 – 76 BGSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | BGSU 80 – 70 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | TOL 73 – 72 BGSU |
| Feb 21, 2025 | BGSU 69 – 68 TOL |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TOL 84 – 71 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-1 | 7-9 |
| Away | 10-4 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.9 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#102) | -4.1 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#107) | -0.78 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#112) | -1.03 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#93) | 0.446 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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