Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU -150 UTC +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +9 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | UTC -0.6 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -0.0 (-9.0) | 144.6 (-7.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -0.9 (-8.1) | 143.3 (-6.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -0.5 (-9.5) | 145.4 (-8.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -0.1 (-8.9) | 147.1 (-10.1) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | ETSU 73 – 61 UTC |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ETSU 67 – 66 UTC |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UTC 78 – 71 ETSU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTC 71 – 63 ETSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ETSU 85 – 84 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-9 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#240) | 0.1 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#318) | -0.53 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#295) | -0.51 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#315) | 0.484 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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