Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | NIU +200 BALL -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +18 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | BALL -2.0 (-16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -0.9 (-17.1) | 145.3 (+10.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -2.6 (-15.4) | 142.8 (+13.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -0.3 (-17.7) | 145.9 (+10.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -0.5 (-17.5) | 147.0 (+9.0) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BALL 79 – 43 NIU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | BALL 58 – 53 NIU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BALL 89 – 83 NIU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NIU 76 – 66 BALL |
| Feb 21, 2024 | BALL 70 – 63 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 5-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#259) | 0.1 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#242) | 0.31 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#239) | 0.19 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#223) | 0.508 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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