Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | HOW -150 NCCU +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +4 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | NCCU -0.7 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -1.3 (+2.7) | 143.7 (-5.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -1.7 (+2.3) | 141.7 (-3.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -1.0 (+3.0) | 143.5 (-5.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -1.0 (+3.0) | 144.3 (-6.3) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | HOW 70 – 63 NCCU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | HOW 100 – 67 NCCU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | HOW 83 – 69 NCCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NCCU 72 – 68 HOW |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HOW 82 – 78 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 10-4 |
| Home | 12-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 6-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#262) | -1.3 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#213) | -0.51 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#227) | -0.35 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#228) | 0.469 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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