Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UVM -1600 UMBC +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +6 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -6.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -4.3 (+1.7) | 143.8 (-1.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -7.4 (-1.4) | 141.3 (+0.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -4.8 (+1.2) | 144.4 (-2.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -4.4 (+1.6) | 144.7 (-2.7) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | UMBC 74 – 59 UVM |
| Feb 19, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 62 UVM |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UVM 64 – 55 UMBC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UVM 79 – 69 UMBC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UMBC 80 – 63 UVM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 8-8 |
| Home | 13-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 9-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#147) | -1.7 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#158) | -0.07 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#176) | -0.16 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#114) | 0.489 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 18.8% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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