Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | NAU -120 UNCO +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | NAU -2.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -2.0 (+8.0) | 152.1 (+3.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -0.2 (+9.8) | 149.3 (+6.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -1.2 (+8.8) | 150.3 (+5.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -1.3 (+8.7) | 152.6 (+3.4) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNCO 78 – 77 NAU |
| Jan 25, 2026 | NAU 81 – 77 UNCO |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 73 NAU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UNCO 87 – 69 NAU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | UNCO 82 – 74 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-23 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-8 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-13 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#282) | -5.5 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#320) | -0.73 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#317) | -0.93 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#322) | 0.465 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.4% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.