Betting Lines
| Spread | UMES -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UMES -250 COPP +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMES +19 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | UMES -8.4 (+10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMES -7.2 (+11.8) | 150.7 (+18.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMES -6.5 (+12.5) | 150.1 (+18.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMES -6.7 (+12.3) | 148.7 (+20.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMES -6.9 (+12.1) | 150.0 (+19.0) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | COPP 71 – 65 UMES |
| Jan 17, 2026 | UMES 70 – 67 COPP |
| Mar 4, 2025 | UMES 72 – 59 COPP |
| Feb 4, 2025 | COPP 62 – 57 UMES |
| Feb 20, 2024 | UMES 75 – 67 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 4-10 |
| Home | 10-3 | 4-6 |
| Away | 7-9 | 5-16 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.9 | 83.2 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#267) | -10.5 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#148) | -1.11 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#173) | -1.49 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#129) | 0.446 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 18.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.0% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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