Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | BAY -300 ARK +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +3 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -5.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -7.8 (-4.8) | 147.8 (-16.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | BAY -7.4 (-4.4) | 145.3 (-14.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | BAY -7.9 (-4.9) | 147.5 (-16.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -7.3 (-4.3) | 146.3 (-15.3) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 10, 2024 | BAY 72 – 67 ARK |
| Mar 30, 2021 | BAY 81 – 72 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#16) | 12.9 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#15) | 1.90 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.57 (#12) | 2.36 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#19) | 0.612 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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