Some is rich and some is poor and that's the way the world is / And I don't believe in lying back and saying how bad your life is. "Bankrobber" - The Clash
(1) Baylor Bears
81 72
FINAL Neutral NCAA Tournament
(3) Arkansas Razorbacks
Lucas Oil Stadium (Neutral) · March 30, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread BAY -8.5 Home covered
O/U 147.5 Over
Money BAY -333 / ARK +333
Model Predictions
Spread Total BAY win
Actual BAY +9 153 Won
Massey BAY -5.4 (+3.6)
Massey Totals 153.7 (-0.7)
Bradley-Terry 80%
Weighted B-T 85%
Baseline Plus ML BAY -6.6 (+2.4) 153.9 (-0.9) 81%
Model 4 ML BAY -6.4 (+2.6) 148.8 (+4.2) 77%
Model 3 ML BAY -8.3 (+0.7) 150.5 (+2.5) 78%
Baseline ML BAY -6.7 (+2.3) 149.1 (+3.9) 78%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 10, 2024 BAY 7267 ARK
Jan 28, 2023 BAY 6764 ARK

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BAY ARK
Overall 28-2 25-7
Conference 13-1 13-4
Home 11-0 16-1
Away 7-1 5-4
Neutral 10-1 4-2
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak W6 L1
Avg Pts For 82.9 81.4
Avg Pts Against 65.5 70.8
Massey 21.7 (#2) 16.3 (#10)
Bradley-Terry 4.34 (#2) 2.94 (#8)
W. Bradley-Terry 5.22 (#2) 3.48 (#13)
RPI 0.639 (#3) 0.612 (#13)
Shooting & Four Factors BAY ARK
FG% 48.6% 45.1%
3PT% 40.8% 33.3%
REB / G 36.3 39.9
OREB / G 12.7 12.0
AST / TO 1.41 1.14
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.6% 50.8%
TOV% 16.8% 16.9%
ORB% 36.8% 31.5%
FT Rate 18.6% 24.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.8% 47.6%
Opp TOV% 24.8% 20.4%
DRB% 69.7% 73.7%
Opp FT Rate 21.2% 19.9%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.