Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -333 ARK +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +9 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -5.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -6.0 (+3.0) | 151.0 (+2.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -4.5 (+4.5) | 147.4 (+5.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -5.3 (+3.7) | 152.2 (+0.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -5.2 (+3.8) | 149.2 (+3.8) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 10, 2024 | BAY 72 – 67 ARK |
| Jan 28, 2023 | BAY 67 – 64 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-2 | 25-7 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 13-4 |
| Home | 11-0 | 16-1 |
| Away | 7-1 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.9 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 21.7 (#2) | 16.3 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.34 (#2) | 2.94 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.22 (#2) | 3.48 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#3) | 0.612 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 40.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.8% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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