Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | ARK +155 BAY -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +5 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -11.1 (-16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (-16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -8.1 (-13.1) | 141.8 (-2.8) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -8.0 (-13.0) | 138.8 (+0.2) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2023 | BAY 67 – 64 ARK |
| Mar 30, 2021 | BAY 81 – 72 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#110) | -8.5 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#49) | -0.48 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#42) | -0.74 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#19) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.0% | 37.1% |
| 3PT% | 21.1% | 14.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 39.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 6.3% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 65.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 85.3% | 51.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.1% | 11.3% |
Game Analysis
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