Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 112.5 Under |
| Money | UNT -333 UTEP +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +10 | 94 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -10.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 109.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -9.2 (+0.8) | 119.9 (-25.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -10.1 (-0.1) | 116.1 (-22.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -8.5 (+1.5) | 123.2 (-29.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -9.2 (+0.8) | 124.0 (-30.0) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2023 | UNT 80 – 72 UTEP |
| Mar 5, 2022 | UTEP 70 – 68 UNT |
| Feb 8, 2022 | UNT 66 – 58 UTEP |
| Jan 16, 2021 | UNT 74 – 65 UTEP |
| Jan 16, 2021 | UNT 63 – 33 UTEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-7 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-7 |
| Away | 10-3 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.3 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#79) | -0.3 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#44) | 0.10 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#53) | 0.01 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#32) | 0.500 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.7% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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