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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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92–32 on winners spread MAE 8.1 124 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Princeton @ Columbia	-11.0	138.5	18%	68–49	✓
Pennsylvania @ Cornell	+6.8	153.1	78%	69–88	✓
Dartmouth @ Yale	+16.4	134.1	88%	81–77	✗
Harvard @ Brown	-0.2	129.0	50%	70–68	✓
Saint Peter's @ Siena	+7.9	130.4	81%	60–70	✓
Quinnipiac @ Rider	+0.2	140.6	52%	72–63	✗
Iona @ Marist	-13.2	138.6	15%	84–57	✓
Canisius @ Manhattan	-3.1	146.9	38%	64–57	✓
Niagara @ Fairfield	+1.3	126.1	52%	77–69	✗
Oakland @ Northern Kentucky	+5.2	140.0	67%	64–63	✗
Detroit Mercy @ Wright State	+0.9	152.3	50%	85–90	✓
Akron @ Ball State	+3.1	136.8	66%	63–70	✓
Stanford @ California	-5.8	128.0	30%	70–92	✗
Notre Dame @ North Carolina	+12.1	147.9	87%	64–81	✓
Creighton @ UConn	+11.0	141.6	84%	60–69	✓
Texas @ Oklahoma State	+1.3	138.0	57%	56–46	✗
Vanderbilt @ Missouri	+8.4	153.5	82%	82–85	✓
St. John's @ Providence	+10.4	156.7	85%	80–83	✓
Nebraska @ Minnesota	-4.5	131.5	34%	81–79	✓
Davidson @ VCU	+4.1	140.3	77%	72–89	✓
Northern Illinois @ Buffalo	+9.3	151.3	81%	62–80	✓
Kentucky @ Alabama	+7.7	155.4	74%	52–78	✓
Duke @ Boston College	-12.1	132.6	16%	65–64	✓
Georgia Tech @ Florida State	-0.2	145.1	46%	64–75	✗
Georgia @ Florida	+7.4	138.8	77%	75–82	✓
Long Island University @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+13.5	155.6	84%	89–101	✓
Milwaukee @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+7.2	147.3	80%	74–70	✗
Wisconsin @ Illinois	+6.3	135.9	78%	69–79	✓
Iowa State @ TCU	+4.7	134.6	70%	69–67	✗
Tulane @ Temple	+1.7	147.7	57%	87–76	✗
East Carolina @ Memphis	+11.5	143.3	85%	59–69	✓
Southern Illinois @ Northern Iowa	-0.2	129.7	52%	57–69	✗
UIC @ Indiana State	+11.1	148.0	87%	60–80	✓
Illinois State @ Evansville	-1.7	132.1	34%	69–61	✓
Charlotte @ Florida Atlantic	+9.6	132.2	85%	67–71	✓
Georgetown @ Marquette	+17.5	159.1	90%	73–95	✓
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State	+6.1	124.9	77%	54–64	✓
Saint Joseph's @ Fordham	+5.7	147.8	72%	54–66	✓
Rhode Island @ La Salle	-1.1	138.8	47%	75–77	✗
Loyola Chicago @ George Mason	+8.7	135.9	82%	75–86	✓
Massachusetts @ George Washington	-0.2	146.0	41%	73–81	✗
Radford @ Gardner-Webb	+4.2	127.3	58%	63–59	✗
Charleston Southern @ Presbyterian	+1.2	141.3	51%	67–61	✗
Campbell @ UNC Asheville	+3.8	137.7	66%	55–58	✓
VMI @ Chattanooga	+13.2	147.0	86%	78–85	✓
Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan	-0.3	146.2	48%	56–62	✗
Central Connecticut @ Stonehill	+5.6	135.9	70%	49–51	✓
South Dakota @ North Dakota State	+4.1	139.9	69%	61–73	✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota	-4.7	132.3	27%	60–59	✓
IU Indianapolis @ Youngstown State	+20.6	148.2	90%	74–105	✓
UNC Wilmington @ North Carolina A&T	-8.0	140.8	21%	66–61	✓
Monmouth @ Drexel	+14.7	129.8	89%	35–67	✓
Hofstra @ William & Mary	-6.5	138.9	29%	75–62	✓
Hartford @ Sacred Heart	+11.0	137.1	86%	71–78	✓
Michigan @ Michigan State	+3.6	136.1	67%	53–59	✓
Valparaiso @ Bradley	+16.1	131.6	89%	66–88	✓
Wake Forest @ Louisville	-11.4	142.4	14%	80–72	✓
UTEP @ Louisiana Tech	+6.4	139.5	77%	58–60	✓
Grand Canyon @ Stephen F. Austin	+0.6	136.7	56%	68–73	✓
Seattle U @ UT Arlington	-3.7	135.3	32%	76–61	✓
High Point @ South Carolina Upstate	-1.7	149.5	47%	57–76	✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Merrimack	+3.3	125.6	60%	53–65	✓
Southern Miss @ UL Monroe	-7.9	135.1	22%	65–60	✓
Texas State @ South Alabama	+3.6	128.1	61%	64–58	✗
Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern	+0.1	126.7	49%	81–75	✗
Denver @ Western Illinois	+1.8	144.8	62%	74–91	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Morehead State	+7.1	135.2	80%	59–69	✓
Green Bay @ Cleveland State	+14.5	132.6	88%	77–82	✓
Tennessee @ South Carolina	-13.9	129.3	13%	85–42	✓
Kent State @ Miami (OH)	-11.5	143.0	14%	69–66	✓
Coastal Carolina @ Marshall	+12.9	152.0	85%	66–81	✓
North Carolina Central @ Morgan State	-0.6	145.0	55%	73–78	✗
Texas Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-1.3	141.7	45%	66–70	✗
South Carolina State @ Coppin State	+5.0	160.3	77%	73–85	✓
Clemson @ Pittsburgh	+2.9	144.0	66%	75–74	✗
Western Kentucky @ UTSA	-3.2	144.9	36%	74–64	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Norfolk State	+4.9	138.8	74%	46–57	✓
St. Bonaventure @ Saint Louis	+6.8	140.5	76%	55–78	✓
Nevada @ San José State	-0.7	131.8	50%	67–40	✓
Winthrop @ Longwood	+11.2	144.2	85%	71–85	✓
Furman @ East Tennessee State	-2.9	138.9	34%	70–56	✓
Samford @ UNC Greensboro	+2.2	133.9	65%	70–68	✗
Mercer @ Western Carolina	+0.4	138.9	53%	45–73	✓
Saint Francis @ Wagner	+7.9	131.5	70%	68–63	✗
Northeastern @ Hampton	-4.0	141.6	34%	79–63	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal Poly	-7.2	123.8	20%	62–57	✓
Montana State @ Northern Arizona	-6.0	139.5	24%	69–54	✓
San Diego State @ Wyoming	-6.6	138.4	21%	80–75	✓
Xavier @ Villanova	+0.5	147.6	45%	88–80	✗
Delaware State @ Howard	+7.8	133.9	82%	64–84	✓
Lamar @ SE Louisiana	+11.7	144.6	86%	84–89	✓
Nicholls @ Northwestern State	+2.3	144.3	68%	48–68	✓
East Texas A&M @ McNeese	-0.4	141.6	43%	82–80	✓
Fresno State @ Colorado State	+5.2	126.9	72%	57–79	✓
Tennessee Tech @ UT Martin	+4.2	148.6	61%	84–80	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Little Rock	-2.7	154.9	44%	74–68	✓
Tennessee State @ Lindenwood	+2.2	146.5	51%	60–57	✗
Washington State @ Arizona	+10.6	149.4	83%	74–61	✗
Syracuse @ Virginia	+10.7	129.7	85%	66–73	✓
Delaware @ Charleston	+11.6	149.0	86%	64–75	✓
Alabama A&M @ Alcorn State	+6.0	138.1	70%	76–89	✓
Missouri State @ Belmont	+1.1	135.6	56%	61–74	✓
Ohio @ Bowling Green	-2.9	150.8	42%	79–88	✗
Arkansas State @ Troy	+10.9	129.1	84%	54–66	✓
Portland State @ Idaho	-1.1	150.0	42%	74–58	✓
Sacramento State @ Eastern Washington	+4.9	141.4	77%	75–78	✓
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville	+5.0	127.9	74%	44–51	✓
Houston Christian @ LSU New Orleans	+5.9	154.2	72%	59–82	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Incarnate Word	-9.0	145.3	18%	80–71	✓
Tarleton State @ Sam Houston	+11.7	131.3	87%	68–75	✓
Central Arkansas @ Austin Peay	+6.1	147.0	75%	62–86	✓
Kansas @ West Virginia	+3.1	142.5	53%	76–62	✗
Kansas State @ Baylor	+4.0	146.8	71%	97–95	✗
Alabama State @ Jackson State	+4.3	144.9	67%	58–61	✓
Princeton @ Cornell	+2.5	150.2	58%	75–68	✗
Murray State @ Drake	+5.9	135.5	74%	64–82	✓
North Texas @ Middle Tennessee	-3.3	124.4	29%	56–51	✓
Dartmouth @ Brown	+7.6	130.2	76%	70–77	✓
LSU @ Texas A&M	+4.7	136.2	73%	56–69	✓
Duquesne @ Richmond	+3.4	139.4	73%	73–75	✓
Florida A&M @ Southern	+13.5	136.3	89%	66–84	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Grambling	+13.7	137.8	87%	70–76	✓
Utah State @ Boise State	+2.6	139.1	62%	59–82	✓
Towson @ Stony Brook	-5.4	129.2	26%	67–55	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.