Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UND +200 SDST -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +1 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -2.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -2.0 (+1.0) | 134.0 (-15.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -4.7 (+3.7) | 132.3 (-13.3) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -2.2 (+1.2) | 135.1 (-16.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -2.5 (+1.5) | 133.6 (-14.6) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SDST 91 – 83 UND |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UND 90 – 87 SDST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UND 85 – 69 SDST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UND 80 – 75 SDST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SDST 109 – 73 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-8 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#321) | -2.5 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#313) | 0.03 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#307) | -0.39 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.404 (#325) | 0.524 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 19.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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