Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -150 NIA +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +8 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -3.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.7 (+28.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -0.6 (-8.6) | 127.2 (+18.8) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -1.3 (-9.3) | 126.1 (+19.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -0.6 (-8.6) | 124.7 (+21.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -0.4 (-8.4) | 126.5 (+19.5) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | FAIR 62 – 61 NIA |
| Jan 4, 2026 | FAIR 83 – 75 NIA |
| Jan 17, 2025 | FAIR 70 – 66 NIA |
| Feb 17, 2024 | NIA 65 – 63 FAIR |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NIA 96 – 72 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#255) | -3.8 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#293) | 0.05 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#298) | -0.42 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#288) | 0.502 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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