Betting Lines
| Spread | NOLA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | NOLA -250 HCU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NOLA +23 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | NOLA -6.9 (+16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.3 (-23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -3.7 (+19.3) | 154.6 (-13.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NOLA -5.9 (+17.1) | 154.2 (-13.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -6.2 (+16.8) | 156.9 (-15.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -5.0 (+18.0) | 154.4 (-13.4) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | NOLA 73 – 60 HCU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | HCU 61 – 60 NOLA |
| Dec 6, 2025 | HCU 85 – 76 NOLA |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HCU 81 – 68 NOLA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | HCU 86 – 76 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-9 | 8-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 85.0 |
| Massey | -14.0 (#353) | -16.6 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.05 (#354) | -3.58 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.95 (#354) | -4.71 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.382 (#349) | 0.367 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.7% | 61.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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