Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -450 WIN +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +14 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -14.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -12.2 (+1.8) | 144.3 (+11.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -11.2 (+2.8) | 144.2 (+11.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -13.0 (+1.0) | 147.0 (+9.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -12.2 (+1.8) | 148.2 (+7.8) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | WIN 79 – 74 LONG |
| Dec 31, 2025 | LONG 82 – 70 WIN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | WIN 88 – 79 LONG |
| Feb 28, 2025 | WIN 85 – 59 LONG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#106) | -6.1 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#163) | -0.64 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#162) | -0.98 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#183) | 0.463 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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