Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -250 FRES +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +22 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -6.7 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -5.4 (+16.6) | 129.7 (+6.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -5.2 (+16.8) | 126.9 (+9.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -4.8 (+17.2) | 130.5 (+5.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -4.9 (+17.1) | 131.3 (+4.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | CSU 67 – 63 FRES |
| Feb 25, 2026 | CSU 74 – 70 FRES |
| Jan 14, 2026 | FRES 79 – 69 CSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | CSU 69 – 64 FRES |
| Jan 8, 2025 | CSU 91 – 64 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-7 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#110) | 1.4 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#135) | -0.18 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#131) | -0.06 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#117) | 0.500 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 5.3 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 16.8% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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