Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | CP +275 UCSB -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +5 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -5.4 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -6.1 (+1.1) | 128.0 (-9.0) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -7.2 (+2.2) | 123.8 (-4.8) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -6.5 (+1.5) | 128.9 (-9.9) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -6.6 (+1.6) | 129.8 (-10.8) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | CP 89 – 79 UCSB |
| Jan 23, 2026 | UCSB 107 – 67 CP |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UCSB 96 – 77 CP |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UCSB 75 – 72 CP |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UCSB 83 – 75 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-25 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 1-18 | 15-5 |
| Home | 6-11 | 12-3 |
| Away | 1-13 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.4 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 66.0 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#258) | 4.6 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#275) | 1.50 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#266) | 1.40 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#306) | 0.553 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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