Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | CP +165 UCSB -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +3 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -1.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.4 (-14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -2.4 (-0.6) | 149.1 (-2.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -3.0 (+0.0) | 148.8 (-1.8) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -1.9 (-1.1) | 150.9 (-3.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -1.8 (-1.2) | 151.4 (-4.4) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | CP 89 – 79 UCSB |
| Jan 23, 2026 | UCSB 107 – 67 CP |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UCSB 96 – 77 CP |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UCSB 83 – 75 CP |
| Jan 7, 2024 | UCSB 61 – 52 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-19 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-13 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.4 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#217) | 2.3 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#218) | 0.18 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#221) | 0.04 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#220) | 0.478 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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