Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | CP +154 UCSB -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CP +10 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -4.7 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -3.9 (+13.9) | 155.3 (+12.7) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -3.7 (+13.7) | 153.2 (+14.8) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -2.4 (+12.4) | 155.7 (+12.3) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -2.5 (+12.5) | 155.9 (+12.1) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | UCSB 107 – 67 CP |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UCSB 96 – 77 CP |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UCSB 75 – 72 CP |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UCSB 83 – 75 CP |
| Jan 7, 2024 | UCSB 61 – 52 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-11 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.3 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#250) | 2.4 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#233) | 0.48 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#231) | 0.58 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#243) | 0.530 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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