Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -455 CP +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +40 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -7.7 (+32.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -7.1 (+32.9) | 153.4 (+20.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -6.1 (+33.9) | 155.1 (+18.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -5.7 (+34.3) | 155.7 (+18.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -6.7 (+33.3) | 153.7 (+20.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | CP 89 – 79 UCSB |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UCSB 96 – 77 CP |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UCSB 75 – 72 CP |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UCSB 83 – 75 CP |
| Jan 7, 2024 | UCSB 61 – 52 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-8 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 85.3 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#174) | -4.9 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#165) | -0.78 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#164) | -1.12 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#175) | 0.456 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.5% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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