Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
| Money | CP +250 UCSB -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +9 | 113 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -2.4 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-32.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -5.2 (-3.8) | 137.9 (-24.9) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -1.8 (-7.2) | 141.9 (-28.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -2.2 (-6.8) | 142.8 (-29.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -1.8 (-7.2) | 142.8 (-29.8) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | CP 89 – 79 UCSB |
| Jan 23, 2026 | UCSB 107 – 67 CP |
| Feb 28, 2025 | UCSB 96 – 77 CP |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UCSB 75 – 72 CP |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UCSB 83 – 75 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 9-11 |
| Home | 3-11 | 9-7 |
| Away | 0-16 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L20 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#311) | -2.0 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#281) | -0.61 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#293) | -0.70 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#318) | 0.454 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 12.2% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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