Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | NKU -275 OAK +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OAK +1 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | NKU -8.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -5.3 (-6.3) | 139.9 (-12.9) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -5.2 (-6.2) | 140.0 (-13.0) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -5.4 (-6.4) | 139.3 (-12.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -5.6 (-6.6) | 139.6 (-12.6) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | NKU 85 – 84 OAK |
| Feb 1, 2026 | OAK 76 – 65 NKU |
| Dec 18, 2025 | OAK 82 – 77 NKU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | NKU 84 – 75 OAK |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OAK 68 – 53 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.7 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#227) | -7.6 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#185) | -1.63 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#191) | -1.67 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#202) | 0.415 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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