Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ -5000 GTWN +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +22 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -21.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -17.8 (+4.2) | 159.6 (+8.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -17.5 (+4.5) | 159.1 (+8.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -15.5 (+6.5) | 157.6 (+10.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -17.1 (+4.9) | 160.2 (+7.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | MARQ 76 – 60 GTWN |
| Dec 18, 2025 | GTWN 78 – 69 MARQ |
| Mar 2, 2025 | MARQ 76 – 61 GTWN |
| Jan 8, 2025 | MARQ 74 – 66 GTWN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MARQ 91 – 57 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 2-18 |
| Home | 16-1 | 5-12 |
| Away | 8-4 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#15) | -3.9 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#27) | -0.85 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.14 (#25) | -0.95 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#33) | 0.472 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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