Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | WAG -225 SFPA +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +5 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -7.7 (-12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -5.2 (-10.2) | 137.7 (-6.7) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -7.9 (-12.9) | 131.5 (-0.5) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -4.7 (-9.7) | 138.1 (-7.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -5.5 (-10.5) | 137.5 (-6.5) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | WAG 65 – 56 SFPA |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SFPA 71 – 69 WAG |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SFPA 58 – 55 WAG |
| Jan 26, 2025 | WAG 68 – 66 SFPA |
| Jan 20, 2025 | WAG 70 – 68 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-13 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 9-7 |
| Home | 8-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.3 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#297) | -10.6 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#272) | -2.18 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#299) | -3.05 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#291) | 0.409 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 43.1% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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