Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | UPST +100 HPU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +19 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -1.0 (+20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (-19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -0.7 (+19.7) | 151.4 (-18.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -1.7 (+20.7) | 149.5 (-16.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -0.4 (+19.4) | 148.4 (-15.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -0.7 (+19.7) | 148.8 (-15.8) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | HPU 95 – 70 UPST |
| Jan 18, 2026 | HPU 89 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 27, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 UPST |
| Jan 23, 2025 | HPU 86 – 77 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UPST 86 – 81 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 77.2 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#303) | -2.3 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#217) | -0.43 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#237) | -0.91 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#228) | 0.480 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 28.9 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 60.2% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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