Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | APSU -275 CARK +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +24 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -9.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -6.5 (+17.5) | 147.9 (+0.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -6.1 (+17.9) | 147.0 (+1.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -6.5 (+17.5) | 147.7 (+0.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -6.7 (+17.3) | 147.1 (+0.9) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | CARK 93 – 88 APSU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | APSU 90 – 67 CARK |
| Jan 24, 2025 | APSU 73 – 71 CARK |
| Feb 16, 2024 | APSU 77 – 67 CARK |
| Jan 20, 2024 | APSU 94 – 71 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 4-14 |
| Home | 7-8 | 6-8 |
| Away | 1-13 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.6 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 82.4 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#274) | -11.0 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#276) | -1.49 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#275) | -1.96 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#222) | 0.427 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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