Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UTC -1400 VMI +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +7 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -16.6 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -12.2 (-5.2) | 147.2 (+15.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -13.2 (-6.2) | 147.0 (+16.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -11.9 (-4.9) | 149.7 (+13.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -13.0 (-6.0) | 149.5 (+13.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | UTC 86 – 79 VMI |
| Jan 3, 2026 | VMI 79 – 71 UTC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UTC 91 – 70 VMI |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UTC 91 – 66 VMI |
| Feb 8, 2024 | UTC 88 – 84 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 2-16 |
| Home | 9-7 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-9 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#126) | -9.7 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#173) | -2.22 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#157) | -2.85 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#144) | 0.393 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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