Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UTM -225 TNTC +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +4 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | UTM -6.3 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -5.4 (-9.4) | 148.1 (+15.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -4.2 (-8.2) | 148.6 (+15.4) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -5.1 (-9.1) | 146.9 (+17.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -5.3 (-9.3) | 147.9 (+16.1) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UTM 64 – 49 TNTC |
| Dec 20, 2025 | UTM 86 – 62 TNTC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | UTM 70 – 67 TNTC |
| Feb 21, 2025 | TNTC 71 – 66 UTM |
| Jan 25, 2025 | TNTC 89 – 85 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#275) | -7.8 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#220) | -2.37 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#250) | -2.71 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#237) | 0.383 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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