Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | NDSU -188 SDAK +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +12 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -6.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -3.1 (+8.9) | 141.4 (-7.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -4.1 (+7.9) | 139.9 (-5.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -3.3 (+8.7) | 141.8 (-7.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -3.3 (+8.7) | 141.5 (-7.5) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NDSU 89 – 84 SDAK |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NDSU 84 – 61 SDAK |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SDAK 85 – 84 NDSU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NDSU 82 – 78 SDAK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NDSU 103 – 77 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#266) | -7.6 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#299) | -0.30 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#289) | -0.65 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#260) | 0.477 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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