Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -250 SJU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +3 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -11.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -11.5 (-8.5) | 159.2 (+3.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -10.4 (-7.4) | 156.7 (+6.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -10.9 (-7.9) | 157.0 (+6.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -10.5 (-7.5) | 156.2 (+6.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SJU 85 – 72 PROV |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SJU 79 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PROV 77 – 71 SJU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJU 68 – 66 PROV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | SJU 72 – 70 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#33) | 4.4 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#20) | 0.89 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#13) | 1.15 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#47) | 0.519 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 41.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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