Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG -175 SAM +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +2 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -5.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -3.4 (-5.4) | 135.2 (+2.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -2.2 (-4.2) | 133.9 (+4.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -3.5 (-5.5) | 134.2 (+3.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -4.0 (-6.0) | 135.0 (+3.0) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SAM 87 – 78 UNCG |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNCG 89 – 82 SAM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNCG 108 – 100 SAM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SAM 76 – 69 UNCG |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SAM 78 – 69 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-6 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#150) | 0.6 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#153) | -0.53 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#158) | -0.30 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#130) | 0.452 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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