Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -154 XAV +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +8 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -2.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (+16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -0.9 (-7.1) | 151.1 (+16.9) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -0.5 (-8.5) | 147.6 (+20.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -1.3 (-6.7) | 148.1 (+19.9) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -1.6 (-6.4) | 152.0 (+16.0) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | VILL 91 – 78 XAV |
| Feb 17, 2026 | VILL 92 – 89 XAV |
| Feb 9, 2025 | VILL 80 – 68 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2025 | XAV 69 – 63 VILL |
| Feb 8, 2024 | XAV 56 – 53 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#82) | 12.6 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#119) | 2.40 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#105) | 3.32 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#107) | 0.607 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 50.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 40.4% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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