Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -150 XAV +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +12 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -2.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -1.9 (+10.1) | 140.9 (+7.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -3.6 (+8.4) | 138.2 (+9.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -2.2 (+9.8) | 141.4 (+6.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -1.9 (+10.1) | 142.2 (+5.8) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | VILL 91 – 78 XAV |
| Feb 17, 2026 | VILL 92 – 89 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2025 | XAV 69 – 63 VILL |
| Feb 8, 2024 | XAV 56 – 53 VILL |
| Jan 4, 2024 | VILL 66 – 65 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#55) | 11.8 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#105) | 1.70 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#88) | 2.33 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#135) | 0.547 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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