Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -167 VILL +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +3 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -2.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-36.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -3.7 (-0.7) | 145.2 (-36.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -3.3 (-0.3) | 143.0 (-34.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -3.2 (-0.2) | 143.3 (-34.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -3.7 (-0.7) | 145.1 (-36.1) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | VILL 91 – 78 XAV |
| Feb 17, 2026 | VILL 92 – 89 XAV |
| Feb 9, 2025 | VILL 80 – 68 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2025 | XAV 69 – 63 VILL |
| Jan 4, 2024 | VILL 66 – 65 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-7 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#44) | 11.6 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#80) | 1.27 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#53) | 1.78 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#79) | 0.564 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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