Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -850 XAV +575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +13 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -11.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (+13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -12.1 (+0.9) | 151.8 (+17.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -10.9 (+2.1) | 151.1 (+17.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -11.3 (+1.7) | 151.9 (+17.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -11.1 (+1.9) | 152.6 (+16.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | VILL 92 – 89 XAV |
| Feb 9, 2025 | VILL 80 – 68 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2025 | XAV 69 – 63 VILL |
| Feb 8, 2024 | XAV 56 – 53 VILL |
| Jan 4, 2024 | VILL 66 – 65 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 78.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#42) | 5.5 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#23) | 0.94 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.56 (#25) | 1.43 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#25) | 0.509 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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