Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | XAV +170 VILL -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +3 | 181 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -6.3 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+29.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -5.8 (+2.8) | 149.2 (+31.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -4.4 (+1.4) | 149.1 (+31.9) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -5.4 (+2.4) | 147.2 (+33.8) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -4.2 (+1.2) | 147.5 (+33.5) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | VILL 91 – 78 XAV |
| Feb 9, 2025 | VILL 80 – 68 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2025 | XAV 69 – 63 VILL |
| Feb 8, 2024 | XAV 56 – 53 VILL |
| Jan 4, 2024 | VILL 66 – 65 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.4 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#99) | 14.8 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#83) | 2.98 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#77) | 3.87 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#124) | 0.623 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.77 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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