Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | XAV -150 VILL +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +6 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -3.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -2.0 (+4.0) | 145.9 (-13.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -3.5 (+2.5) | 148.7 (-16.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -3.9 (+2.1) | 148.8 (-16.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -4.2 (+1.8) | 148.8 (-16.8) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | VILL 91 – 78 XAV |
| Feb 17, 2026 | VILL 92 – 89 XAV |
| Feb 9, 2025 | VILL 80 – 68 XAV |
| Feb 8, 2024 | XAV 56 – 53 VILL |
| Jan 4, 2024 | VILL 66 – 65 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#51) | 11.3 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#82) | 0.96 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#66) | 1.25 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#117) | 0.537 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 41.2% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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