Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
| Money | VILL -355 XAV +278 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +1 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -8.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (-7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -6.7 (-5.7) | 139.1 (-8.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -6.9 (-5.9) | 137.6 (-6.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -6.4 (-5.4) | 138.6 (-7.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -6.4 (-5.4) | 139.6 (-8.6) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | VILL 91 – 78 XAV |
| Feb 17, 2026 | VILL 92 – 89 XAV |
| Feb 9, 2025 | VILL 80 – 68 XAV |
| Jan 14, 2025 | XAV 69 – 63 VILL |
| Feb 8, 2024 | XAV 56 – 53 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#27) | 9.5 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#48) | 0.70 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#37) | 1.47 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#30) | 0.558 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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