Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 118.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU +130 UNT -167 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +5 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -1.8 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -2.3 (-2.7) | 126.7 (-19.7) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -3.3 (-1.7) | 124.4 (-17.4) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -1.9 (-3.1) | 126.3 (-19.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -2.2 (-2.8) | 126.9 (-19.9) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2023 | UNT 64 – 50 MTSU |
| Jan 8, 2022 | UNT 70 – 63 MTSU |
| Mar 11, 2021 | UNT 76 – 56 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 31-7 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 16-4 |
| Home | 12-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-11 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 56.3 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#129) | 8.6 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#131) | 2.02 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#130) | 2.51 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#109) | 0.610 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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