Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 120.5 Under |
| Money | UNT -300 MTSU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +14 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -8.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -8.0 (+6.0) | 124.5 (-10.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -8.0 (+6.0) | 121.9 (-7.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -7.1 (+6.9) | 130.9 (-16.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -7.9 (+6.1) | 129.1 (-15.1) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2023 | UNT 56 – 51 MTSU |
| Jan 8, 2022 | UNT 70 – 63 MTSU |
| Mar 11, 2021 | UNT 76 – 56 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-7 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 10-3 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 56.3 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#76) | 3.4 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#35) | 0.84 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#49) | 0.73 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#27) | 0.563 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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