Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -2000 MTSU +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +20 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -17.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -13.5 (+6.5) | 129.2 (+2.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -11.8 (+8.2) | 127.8 (+4.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -13.0 (+7.0) | 129.1 (+2.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -13.7 (+6.3) | 130.1 (+1.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2023 | UNT 64 – 50 MTSU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | UNT 56 – 51 MTSU |
| Jan 8, 2022 | UNT 70 – 63 MTSU |
Game Analysis
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