Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | SJSU +105 NEV -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +27 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | NEV -0.2 (-26.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (-27.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -0.1 (-26.9) | 134.4 (-27.4) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -0.7 (-26.3) | 131.8 (-24.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -0.8 (-27.8) | 135.5 (-28.5) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -0.4 (-27.4) | 136.6 (-29.6) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | SJSU 87 – 71 NEV |
| Jan 21, 2026 | NEV 87 – 54 SJSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NEV 73 – 58 SJSU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NEV 75 – 64 SJSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NEV 84 – 63 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-8 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#114) | 8.0 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#71) | 2.10 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#69) | 2.33 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#61) | 0.631 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 35.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.7% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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