Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -225 MISS +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +10 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -7.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -5.4 (+4.6) | 127.4 (-9.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -6.1 (+3.9) | 124.9 (-6.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -5.7 (+4.3) | 128.1 (-10.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -6.1 (+3.9) | 126.6 (-8.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MSST 90 – 78 MISS |
| Jan 18, 2026 | MISS 68 – 67 MSST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MSST 81 – 71 MISS |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MSST 84 – 81 MISS |
| Feb 22, 2024 | MSST 83 – 71 MISS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 3-15 |
| Home | 12-4 | 7-10 |
| Away | 4-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#55) | 5.5 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#35) | 0.79 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#48) | 1.65 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#68) | 0.552 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.6% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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