Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | NAU +250 MTST -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +15 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -4.2 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -5.0 (-10.0) | 141.9 (-18.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -6.0 (-9.0) | 139.5 (-16.5) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -4.6 (-10.4) | 141.5 (-18.5) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -4.6 (-10.4) | 142.6 (-19.6) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | MTST 76 – 65 NAU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MTST 77 – 68 NAU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | NAU 69 – 64 MTST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MTST 58 – 53 NAU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NAU 76 – 71 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-23 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 15-3 |
| Home | 6-8 | 12-1 |
| Away | 3-13 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#270) | 2.9 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#263) | 0.20 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#278) | 0.45 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#278) | 0.513 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.4% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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