Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | USA -200 TXST +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +6 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -6.3 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -4.2 (-10.2) | 131.4 (-9.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -3.6 (-9.6) | 128.1 (-6.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -4.1 (-10.1) | 129.3 (-7.3) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -3.9 (-9.9) | 130.2 (-8.2) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | TXST 90 – 82 USA |
| Dec 20, 2025 | TXST 67 – 65 USA |
| Feb 22, 2025 | TXST 93 – 92 USA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | USA 70 – 65 TXST |
| Feb 16, 2024 | USA 72 – 55 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-4 | 4-10 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#163) | -1.5 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#205) | -0.34 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#196) | -0.50 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#160) | 0.459 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 14.2% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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