Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | BALL -120 AKR +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +7 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -5.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -4.2 (+2.8) | 138.2 (-5.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -3.1 (+3.9) | 136.8 (-3.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -4.8 (+2.2) | 138.8 (-5.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -4.7 (+2.3) | 139.2 (-6.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | AKR 78 – 65 BALL |
| Jan 14, 2026 | AKR 87 – 77 BALL |
| Feb 26, 2025 | AKR 87 – 82 BALL |
| Feb 5, 2025 | AKR 81 – 73 BALL |
| Jan 10, 2024 | AKR 80 – 76 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#107) | 2.4 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#96) | 0.54 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#93) | 0.49 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#96) | 0.516 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 32.3% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 15.2% |
Game Analysis
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