Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | BALL +275 AKR -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +4 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | AKR -8.9 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (+21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -7.4 (+3.4) | 136.3 (+19.7) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -8.7 (+4.7) | 136.8 (+19.2) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -8.3 (+4.3) | 138.7 (+17.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -7.9 (+3.9) | 140.4 (+15.6) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | AKR 78 – 65 BALL |
| Jan 14, 2026 | AKR 87 – 77 BALL |
| Feb 26, 2025 | AKR 87 – 82 BALL |
| Feb 5, 2025 | AKR 81 – 73 BALL |
| Mar 1, 2023 | AKR 87 – 83 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-1 |
| Away | 6-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#291) | 6.0 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#274) | 1.16 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#285) | 1.63 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#295) | 0.569 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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